ABSTRACT
Background: Saudi Arabia has recorded the largest number of COVID-19 cases in the Arab world. However, since September 2020 the number of cases has been falling steadily. Various factors may have been behind this success. Joinpoint software is a freely available program that allows the detection of statistically significant trends in data. This paper uses this tool to explore specifically the impact of domestic travel restrictions on the control of the pandemic.
ABSTRACT
Background: The relatively small, populated countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates) of the Arabian Peninsula have recorded high per-capita COVID-19 infection rates. These countries also have a high internet penetrance rate with a large Google share. Google Trends is a freely accessible online tool that allows the user to analyze trends in public Google searches during a given period and across a specified region. This paper investigates the use of this tool to study public awareness of COVID-19 in the selected countries.
ABSTRACT
The paper studies the dynamics of the classical susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model when applied to the transmission of COVID-19 disease. The model includes the classical linear incidence rate but considers a nonlinear removal rate that depends on the hospital-bed population ratio. The model also includes the effects of media on public awareness. We prove that when the basic reproduction number is less than unity the model can exhibit a number of nonlinear phenomena including saddle-node, backward, and Hopf bifurcations. The model is fitted to COVID-19 data pertinent to Saudi Arabia. Numerical simulations are provided to supplement the theoretical analysis and delineate the effects of hospital-bed population ratio and public awareness on the control of the disease.